The 2018 StratSpace Intelligence Report leverages the successful forecasted trending of prior revisions and focuses on the key data for making financial decisions. Based on customer feedback, we have streamlined the 2018 version enabling the reader to focus on the data and trends vs space history and details methodology. 

The Spacecraft section evaluates spacecraft worldwide based on manufactures’ forecasts, execution to plan and constraints such as launch and priority. In addition, the Launch Vehicle section looks at the worldwide development of new systems to address the launch market needs. This report is separated into these two major segments:

• Spacecraft
• Launch Vehicle

The markets are discussed within each respective area with focus on commercial opportunities. Those segments are:

• U.S. Civil Markets - NASA, NOAA and Education
• Department of Defense (DOD)
• Commercial (globally)
• International Noncommercial (Government, Defense and Education)

The methodology for developing this forecast has remained consistent throughout this document’s 19-year history. The Forecast Team estimates projections of spacecraft to be built and launched over the next 10-years from global spacecraft operators, spacecraft manufacturers, and launch service providers. This includes a projection of these organizations’ plans as well as a broad, U.S. Government-wide, estimate of program spending on missions. The Forecast Team uses these inputs including public sources (e.g., spacecraft operator and launch provider web sites) and the team’s own industry knowledge to develop the 5-year forecast. Factors that were considered in developing the forecast include:

• Publicly-announced spacecraft and launch contracts
• Projected planned and replenishment missions
• Potential consolidation among companies and operators
• New launch vehicle capabilities
• Hosted payload opportunities
• Historical development success
• Historical product/system fielding

The forecast method relies on our proprietary model of the space industry and production numbers as well as proprietary relationships between the space, launch, and ground element costs. These models are combined with the headcount of missions to arrive at the launch tonnage estimates, launch vehicle size mixture, spacecraft size and destination mix, spacecraft and launch vehicle market dollars.